Central Banks & Policy

Fed and BOJ approach month-end meetings with Brent near $100, a softer dollar, and IMF scenario bands highlighting an increasingly narrow policy corridor.

Fed, ECB, and BOJ are holding policy steady as oil volatility keeps inflation uncertainty elevated into late April meetings.

Markets are repricing into the April 27-30 BOJ-Fed-BOE sequence as term premia stay elevated.

Fed, ECB, and BOJ signal patience as post-ceasefire oil relief eases inflation pressure but energy and shipping risks keep policy restrictive.

Brent settled at $94.75 as a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire lifted risk assets and lowered yields, giving the Fed and ECB short-term policy breathing room.

UK 10-year gilt yields hit 4.995% — highest since the 2022 Truss crisis. Nikkei 225 -2.79%, gold $4,532, Brent $115. BOE May 8 meeting now its most consequential in years.

Japan 10Y JGB hits 2.36% — highest since 2010. Norges Bank scraps its rate-cut forecast. Australia 10Y surges to 5.119%. Fed September hike odds: 50%.

CME FedWatch is pricing a 20% June rate hike probability — up from 0% four weeks ago — as Brent settles at $112.19 and the 30-year Treasury yield approaches the 5% bond vigilante threshold.

The Fed voted 11–1 to hold and cut 2026 rate-cut projections to one. BOJ held at 0.75% with hawkish dissent. Markets now price 50bp of ECB hikes by year-end as the easing cycle ends.

Fed holds at 3.50–3.75%, ECB at 2.00% — dot plot and revised ECB forecasts will signal whether oil-driven inflation is temporary or structural. BoC, BoE, BoJ also decide this week.

The Federal Reserve holds at 3.50–3.75% as Brent tops $91. ECB projections due March 19 must navigate a 0.4–0.5pp inflation impact; BOJ weighs pausing its rate-hike cycle.