Central Banks & Policy

Markets are repricing into the April 27-30 BOJ-Fed-BOE sequence as term premia stay elevated.

Fed, ECB, and BOJ signal patience as post-ceasefire oil relief eases inflation pressure but energy and shipping risks keep policy restrictive.

Brent settled at $94.75 as a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire lifted risk assets and lowered yields, giving the Fed and ECB short-term policy breathing room.

UK 10-year gilt yields hit 4.995% — highest since the 2022 Truss crisis. Nikkei 225 -2.79%, gold $4,532, Brent $115. BOE May 8 meeting now its most consequential in years.

Japan 10Y JGB hits 2.36% — highest since 2010. Norges Bank scraps its rate-cut forecast. Australia 10Y surges to 5.119%. Fed September hike odds: 50%.

CME FedWatch is pricing a 20% June rate hike probability — up from 0% four weeks ago — as Brent settles at $112.19 and the 30-year Treasury yield approaches the 5% bond vigilante threshold.

The Fed voted 11–1 to hold and cut 2026 rate-cut projections to one. BOJ held at 0.75% with hawkish dissent. Markets now price 50bp of ECB hikes by year-end as the easing cycle ends.

Fed holds at 3.50–3.75%, ECB at 2.00% — dot plot and revised ECB forecasts will signal whether oil-driven inflation is temporary or structural. BoC, BoE, BoJ also decide this week.

The Federal Reserve holds at 3.50–3.75% as Brent tops $91. ECB projections due March 19 must navigate a 0.4–0.5pp inflation impact; BOJ weighs pausing its rate-hike cycle.