CME FedWatch is pricing a 20% probability of a Fed rate hike by June — up from 0% four weeks ago — as Brent crude settles at $112.19 and the 30-year Treasury yield approaches 5%. The 2026 easing cycle has inverted.
CME FedWatch is pricing a 20% June rate hike probability — up from 0% four weeks ago — as Brent crude settles at $112.19 and the 30-year Treasury yield approaches the 5% bond vigilante threshold.
USD strengthens even as US equities fall and 10-year yields hold at 4.39%; USD/JPY nears 160 as the BOJ faces an impossible oil-shock dilemma with no clean policy path.
Brent +4.6% to $108.40 as Trump's infrastructure threat reverses de-escalation hopes; Nikkei futures -2.1%, tanker war risk premiums approaching 0.75% ahead of Monday open.
BofA's March survey shows cash allocations surging to 4.3% — biggest jump since March 2020 — as stagflation expectations hit 51% and China's CSI 300 outperforms all major peers.
DXY fell ~1% as the RBA hiked to 4.1%, ECB signalled possible rate rises, and the BOE triggered a violent gilt rout — reversing the Iran war's safe-haven premium on the greenback.
The 2025 easing cycle is effectively over. Five banks held in three days — the dot plot, BOJ dissent, and ECB market pricing signal the next move may be a hike, not a cut.
US equities down just 5% from highs while MSCI ACWI plunges 10%, Nikkei −5.2% weekly, DAX in correction. Oil, the dollar, and today's FOMC dot plot explain the divergence.
Fed holds at 3.50–3.75%, ECB at 2.00% — dot plot and revised ECB forecasts will signal whether oil-driven inflation is temporary or structural. BoC, BoE, BoJ also decide this week.
Industrial output +6.3% YoY — fastest since September 2025 — but new home prices fell 3.2% and urban unemployment rose to 5.3%, revealing structural fragility beneath the headline beat.
S&P 500 at 6,632, Nikkei -3.24% on the week, German factory orders -11.1% MoM — the Iran conflict has sorted global markets by energy import dependency.
Global equity funds shed $7.05bn — worst week since December — as the Iran oil shock pushed investors into money markets, short-term bonds, and industrial sector funds.
S&P 500 fell to a YTD low of 6,672 as the Iran oil shock delivered the steepest global equity drawdown since COVID — Nifty –1.3%, Nikkei –1.2%, KOSPI –11% at trough.
Global Market Updates provides data-driven analysis of worldwide equities, commodities and energy markets, forex and currencies, and central bank policy. Our coverage is sourced from exchanges, central banks, and international economic agencies — written for readers who demand substantive market intelligence beyond the headlines.