US equities are down just 5% from highs while the MSCI ACWI plunges 10%, the Nikkei loses 5.2% weekly, and Europe's DAX enters correction. Oil, the strong dollar, and today's FOMC dot plot explain the gap.
US equities down just 5% from highs while MSCI ACWI plunges 10%, Nikkei −5.2% weekly, DAX in correction. Oil, the dollar, and today's FOMC dot plot explain the divergence.
Fed holds at 3.50–3.75%, ECB at 2.00% — dot plot and revised ECB forecasts will signal whether oil-driven inflation is temporary or structural. BoC, BoE, BoJ also decide this week.
S&P 500 at 6,632, Nikkei -3.24% on the week, German factory orders -11.1% MoM — the Iran conflict has sorted global markets by energy import dependency.
Global equity funds shed $7.05bn — worst week since December — as the Iran oil shock pushed investors into money markets, short-term bonds, and industrial sector funds.
S&P 500 fell to a YTD low of 6,672 as the Iran oil shock delivered the steepest global equity drawdown since COVID — Nifty –1.3%, Nikkei –1.2%, KOSPI –11% at trough.
Brent settled at $100.46/bbl — highest since August 2022 — as Iran's new leader vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut, sending global equities down 1.5% and yields climbing.
Brent holds above $92 as Hormuz stays disrupted. KOSPI -12.2%, Germany -8%, Thailand -10.7% — while Saudi Arabia gains 2.5% and Norway 1.1% on windfall energy revenues.
EUR/USD slips to 1.1567 as Brent retakes $91.94 and Iran's Hormuz threat keeps energy import pressure on Europe, while the yen adds 0.50% on safe-haven demand.
Brent hit $115.20/barrel Monday before retreating to $99 on ceasefire signals. Stagflation fears deepen as US fuel prices average $3.44/gal and Nikkei falls 6%.
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