Central Banks Face April Oil Risk
Policy risk is being repriced into month-end Fed and BOJ meetings as Brent stays near $100 and IMF scenario bands widen the inflation-growth tradeoff.
Policy risk is being repriced into month-end Fed and BOJ meetings as Brent stays near $100 and IMF scenario bands widen the inflation-growth tradeoff.
Fed, ECB, and BOJ signal patience as post-ceasefire oil relief eases inflation pressure but energy and shipping risks keep policy restrictive.
Brent's drop toward $95 marks a shift from panic pricing to quota arithmetic, but shipping friction and sanctions risk keep a sticky energy premium.
Brent retreated toward $99, lifting global equities and easing the dollar as Treasury yields drifted lower and rate-cut probabilities rebuilt.
USD/JPY settled at 159.64 after the Bank of Japan's March 19 hold, approaching the 160 threshold defended with intervention in 2024.
Oil fell to $94.75 after a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, lifting equities and lowering yields as markets repriced Federal Reserve and ECB policy risk.
Brent retreated toward $99 as global equities rebounded, the dollar softened, and the U.S. 10-year yield eased to 4.33%.
Brent jumped 6.7% to $107.92 after an April 2 address offered no Hormuz timeline, erasing Q2 equity gains.
KOSPI surged more than 6.5% at its session peak and the Nikkei 225 climbed 4.04% as exit-timeline signals unwound part of the risk premium.
UK 10-year gilt yields hit 4.995% at the Q2 open as Brent extended to $115.31 and gold climbed to $4,532.10.
The FTSE 100 closed at 9,967.35 — 32.65 points from 10,000 — as the S&P 500 fell 1.67% to 6,368.85.
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