Gold climbed to an all-time intraday high of $5,400.20 per troy ounce on the COMEX on March 1, marking the metal's first breach of the $5,400 threshold as US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran triggered a global rush to safety that sent equities sharply lower, oil surging, and precious metals into historic territory. By Friday's close, bullion had settled at approximately $5,145 per ounce — a weekly gain of 8.4%, the metal's strongest seven-day performance since the March 2020 COVID shock. Silver surged in parallel, reaching $96 per ounce at its intraday peak before retreating as the dollar's own safe-haven bid complicated the picture.
The Anatomy of a Record Rally
The catalyst was unambiguous. US and Israeli forces launched coordinated air campaigns targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure, missile production sites, and command facilities over the weekend of March 1–2, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering immediate fears of Strait of Hormuz disruption. As Sunday evening futures trading opened in Asia, spot gold was already bidding 6.2% above Friday's close of $4,977 — itself a record at the time — as institutional buyers and retail investors alike moved simultaneously into hard assets.
The spike to $5,400 proved short-lived. As the US dollar surged sharply on its own safe-haven dynamic — the DXY index gained 1.9% on March 1 alone — gold relinquished roughly half its intraday gains, closing the session at $5,248. The metal then oscillated between $5,100 and $5,250 through Wednesday and Thursday as a tug-of-war developed between physical demand and dollar-denominated headwinds, before settling the week at $5,145 ahead of the weekend.
"The market is looking at higher oil prices and the potential for inflation, while higher Treasury yields usually aren't great for gold. But the geopolitical risk premium is real and it isn't going away."
— Bart Melek, Global Head of Commodity Strategy, TD Securities, March 5, 2026
Gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded their largest week of inflows since October 2024, with data from the World Gold Council indicating net additions of approximately 28 tonnes globally — roughly $144 billion at current prices — as institutional managers sought verified physical exposure rather than leveraged derivatives during peak uncertainty.
Silver and the Broader Metals Complex
Silver's performance was even more dramatic, reflecting its dual role as both a monetary safe haven and an industrial commodity. Spot silver surged from approximately $83 per ounce pre-conflict to an intraday high of $96 on Monday — a gain of 15.7% in a single session — before retreating to settle the week near $91 as the initial shock premium partially unwound. The metal's strong industrial end-use profile, including solar panel manufacturing and electronics supply chains, added a secondary demand layer to the geopolitical bid.
The silver-gold ratio compressed from approximately 59x pre-conflict to below 57x at the week's lows, signalling silver's outperformance relative to gold during the initial rush. Platinum climbed 6.3% over the week, while palladium — more sensitive to automotive sector demand forecasts than to geopolitical premiums — posted a more modest 2.8% weekly gain. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) surged 11.4%, as mining equities amplified bullion price moves through operational leverage.
The Dollar Paradox: Competing Safe Havens
One of the week's defining market dynamics was the competition between gold and the US dollar for safe-haven capital. The two assets typically share an inverse relationship — dollar strength tends to compress the gold price denominated in that currency — and the conflict activated both simultaneously, creating a complex cross-asset environment. As detailed in US Market Updates' analysis of the Dow's 785-point selloff and oil's surge past $82, the shock was broad-based enough to scramble conventional portfolio positioning across asset classes.
US 10-year Treasury yields traded with unusual volatility through the week: initially falling as investors sought sovereign bond safety, then reversing sharply to a weekly high of 4.74% on Wednesday as oil-driven inflation expectations gained traction, before settling at 4.62% by Friday. The net effect was that the traditional gold-bond correlation held only partially — gold rose despite yields moving higher, underscoring the depth of the geopolitical risk premium being priced in.
Among currency safe havens, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc both strengthened against the dollar even as the DXY gained broadly. USD/JPY fell from 155.40 to 150.82 over the course of the week — a 2.9% appreciation in the yen — while EUR/CHF declined 2.3% as capital flowed into Swiss assets. The euro lost 1.4% against the dollar, settling at 1.0734 by Friday close, pressured by European energy exposure and proximity to the conflict's economic fallout.
What to Watch: Week of March 9
The trajectory of gold and broader safe-haven assets in the coming week will hinge on the evolution of the Iran conflict and its impact on global supply chains. The full geopolitical context — including the legal and diplomatic dimensions of the US-Israeli military campaign — is covered in depth in US Foreign Policy's analysis of Operation Epic Fury and the collapse of Iran nuclear diplomacy.
Traders and analysts are monitoring several catalysts that could drive the next leg:
- US CPI (March 12): February inflation data will test how much pre-conflict energy prices have already fed into consumer prices. Consensus sits at 2.9% year-on-year; any upside surprise would complicate the Fed's rate path and strengthen the gold bid further.
- Fed communications: The FOMC meets March 18–19 facing an impossible macro backdrop — rising energy-driven inflation argues against rate cuts, while the financial market shock argues for accommodation. Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh has offered no public guidance on the conflict's policy implications.
- Hormuz shipping data: Lloyd's List Intelligence tanker trackers will be closely watched for evidence of actual supply disruption. The gap between feared disruption and confirmed throughput decline will determine whether Brent's $80+ premium is sustained or corrects.
- Central bank gold purchases: Central bank demand ran at a record pace through 2025. Any acceleration in emergency reserve diversification purchases — particularly from non-Western central banks — would provide structural support for the $5,000+ price range well beyond the immediate geopolitical impulse.
